World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group D · 25 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Paraguay 0–0 Australia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Paraguay
  • Draw
  • Australia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 31%, books 43%, Polymarket 43% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Paraguay 1.04 − Australia 1.48 (Australia +0.44)

Paraguay 0 – Australia 0: 8% 8 Paraguay 0 – Australia 1: 12% 12 Paraguay 0 – Australia 2: 9% 9 Paraguay 0 – Australia 3: 4% 4 Paraguay 0 – Australia 4: 2% Paraguay 0 – Australia 5+: 1% Paraguay 1 – Australia 0: 8% 8 Paraguay 1 – Australia 1: 13% 13 Paraguay 1 – Australia 2: 9% 9 Paraguay 1 – Australia 3: 5% 5 Paraguay 1 – Australia 4: 2% Paraguay 1 – Australia 5+: 1% Paraguay 2 – Australia 0: 4% 4 Paraguay 2 – Australia 1: 6% 6 Paraguay 2 – Australia 2: 5% 5 Paraguay 2 – Australia 3: 2% Paraguay 2 – Australia 4: 1% Paraguay 2 – Australia 5+: 0% Paraguay 3 – Australia 0: 2% Paraguay 3 – Australia 1: 2% Paraguay 3 – Australia 2: 2% Paraguay 3 – Australia 3: 1% Paraguay 3 – Australia 4: 0% Paraguay 3 – Australia 5+: 0% Paraguay 4 – Australia 0: 0% Paraguay 4 – Australia 1: 1% Paraguay 4 – Australia 2: 0% Paraguay 4 – Australia 3: 0% Paraguay 4 – Australia 4: 0% Paraguay 4 – Australia 5+: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 0: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 1: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 2: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 3: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 4: 0% Paraguay 5+ – Australia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Australia goals → Paraguay goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Australia at 44%, with Paraguay winning in roughly one quarter of simulations. The underdog carries a 26% win probability, leaving meaningful ground between the two sides in the forecast.

The draw is the modal outcome at 31%, suggesting a competitive, closely matched encounter. The spread across all three outcomes is relatively even, indicating the match could plausibly resolve in any direction. No single result dominates the distribution sufficiently to project high scoring or a clear tactical advantage for either side.

The model and sportsbooks diverge substantially. Books and crypto markets both assign Paraguay near 34% and Australia near 24%, essentially inverting the model's lean toward Australia by roughly 20 percentage points. The model's higher draw probability (31% versus 42%) also marks a notable gap. The dashboard makes no claim about which reading is correct; bettors should note this meaningful divergence before committing capital.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.