World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group F · 25 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Tunisia
  • Draw
  • Netherlands
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 70%, books 85%, Polymarket 87% — Polymarket closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Tunisia 0.63 − Netherlands 2.17 (Netherlands +1.55)

Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 0: 6% 6 Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 1: 13% 13 Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 2: 14% 14 Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 3: 10% 10 Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 4: 6% 6 Tunisia 0 – Netherlands 5+: 4% 4 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 0: 4% 4 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 1: 9% 9 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 2: 9% 9 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 3: 7% 7 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 4: 4% 4 Tunisia 1 – Netherlands 5+: 2% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 0: 1% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 1: 3% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 2: 3% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 3: 2% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 4: 1% Tunisia 2 – Netherlands 5+: 1% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 0: 0% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 1: 1% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 2: 1% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 3: 0% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 4: 0% Tunisia 3 – Netherlands 5+: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 0: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 1: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 2: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 3: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 4: 0% Tunisia 4 – Netherlands 5+: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 0: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 1: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 2: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 3: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 4: 0% Tunisia 5+ – Netherlands 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Netherlands goals → Tunisia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours the Netherlands at 70% to win. Tunisia's path to victory stands at 9%, a substantial gap that reflects the disparity in the forecast. The draw—at 22%—emerges as the second-most likely outcome in the model's view, meaningfully more probable than a Tunisia win.

The win-draw-loss spread reveals a match expected to be decisively shaped by the Netherlands' advantage, yet with meaningful room for a stalemate. A draw carries real plausibility in the model's frame; the 22% probability suggests the contest could deliver a result other than a clear winner. Tunisia's low win probability indicates an underdog position, though not an implausible upset candidate given the neutral venue context.

The model and market diverge notably. The sportsbook consensus assigns the Netherlands 87%, some 17 percentage points higher than the model. Correspondingly, the market compresses Tunisia's win probability to 4% and the draw to 9%—both substantially tighter than the model's readings. Polymarket prices align closely with the sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better captures match outcomes; the divergence warrants acknowledgment and suggests material disagreement on the draw's likelihood in particular.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.