USA v Türkiye

Preview

The model favors Turkey with a 38% win probability, while the USA's chance stands at 31%. A draw is nearly as likely as a USA victory in the statistical forecast, carrying 31% probability and suggesting a closely matched contest with no clear separation between the two lower-ranked outcomes.

The spread across all three outcomes is narrow, with no single result dominating. The model assigns roughly equal weight to a Turkey win and a draw—a gap of only 7 percentage points—while the USA trails by 7 points as well. This distribution indicates a competitive match in which a stalemate remains a plausible and substantive outcome.

The sportsbook consensus diverges from the model on USA chances, crediting them with 37% compared to the model's 31%—a meaningful 6-percentage-point gap favoring the Americans. The market and model largely agree on Turkey's probability (35–38% range), and both treat draws as clearly less likely than the favorite's win chance. The dashboard offers no judgment on which estimate is more accurate.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.