Group D · 25 June 2026 · home venue — USA · Full time

USA 2–2 Türkiye

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

USA
Draw
Türkiye

Modelbias-corrected

31%

38%

Sportsbookvig stripped

50%

24%

26%

Polymarket

51%

23%

27%

Model gave this result 31%, books 24%, Polymarket 23% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: USA 1.16 − Türkiye 1.35 (Türkiye +0.19)

1–113.1%
0–110.7%
1–09.1%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Model and market disagree on the favourite · written pre-match

The market puts USA 19 pp higher than the model — 50% vs 31%.

The model favors Turkey at 38% while the market favors USA at 52%, a 21-percentage-point gap on the USA win outcome. This sharp divergence suggests the market is pricing in information the model cannot access—possibly recent lineup changes, injuries to key players, or form shifts since the model's last update. The model's relatively balanced view across all three outcomes contrasts with the market's substantial confidence in a USA victory, though both sources agree a draw is less likely than either team winning outright. The dashboard flags this divergence as a notable signal worth monitoring rather than a judgment on which assessment will prove correct.

Pre-match preview

The model identifies Turkey as the marginal favorite, with a 37.5% win probability compared to the USA's 31.1%. The gap is narrow enough that the outcome remains genuinely uncertain; Turkey's advantage is real but modest.

The forecast distribution reflects a tightly competitive match. Draw probability stands at 31.4%, nearly equal to both outright win chances. This clustering suggests the teams are closely matched in underlying strength, and the result could plausibly resolve in any direction. The spread across all three outcomes is relatively flat, pointing to a competitive fixture rather than a heavily tilted one.

No sportsbook consensus is yet available. Polymarket data shows extreme concentration (100% on Turkey, 0% on USA and draw), but that reflection appears anomalous relative to the model's assessed probabilities and does not represent a functioning price discovery mechanism. The dashboard makes no claim about which source better reflects true match probability.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.