World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Group H · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Cabo Verde 0–0 Saudi Arabia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Cabo Verde
  • Draw
  • Saudi Arabia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 31%, books 28%, Polymarket 28% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Cabo Verde 1.11 − Saudi Arabia 1.40 (Saudi Arabia +0.29)

Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 0: 8% 8 Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 1: 11% 11 Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 2: 8% 8 Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 3: 4% 4 Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 4: 1% Cabo Verde 0 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 0: 9% 9 Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 1: 13% 13 Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 2: 9% 9 Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 3: 4% 4 Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 4: 1% Cabo Verde 1 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 1% Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 0: 5% 5 Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 1: 7% 7 Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 2: 5% 5 Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 3: 2% Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 4: 1% Cabo Verde 2 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 0: 2% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 1: 3% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 2: 2% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 3: 1% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Cabo Verde 3 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 0: 1% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 1: 1% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 2: 1% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Cabo Verde 4 – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 0: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 1: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 2: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 3: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 4: 0% Cabo Verde 5+ – Saudi Arabia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Saudi Arabia goals → Cabo Verde goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Saudi Arabia as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Cape Verde has a 29% chance of victory. The draw sits at 31%, indicating genuine competitive balance underpinning the matchup. Saudi Arabia's edge is modest rather than decisive.

The spread across outcomes reveals a closely contested match. No single result dominates the probability distribution; the gap between favorite and underdog is only 11 percentage points. A draw emerges as a plausible outcome at nearly one-third likelihood, suggesting the teams are expected to be well-matched in a neutral setting.

The model and market diverge meaningfully on favorite identification. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both favor Cape Verde at 36%, a gap of 7 percentage points above the model's 29%. Conversely, the market rates Saudi Arabia's win probability 5 percentage points lower than the model does. Draw probabilities align closely across sources. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these framings, but the discrepancy warrants attention when making decisions against either estimate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.