World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group G · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Egypt 1–1 Iran

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Egypt
  • Draw
  • Iran
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 30%, books 36%, Polymarket 36% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Egypt 0.97 − Iran 1.58 (Iran +0.61)

Egypt 0 – Iran 0: 8% 8 Egypt 0 – Iran 1: 12% 12 Egypt 0 – Iran 2: 10% 10 Egypt 0 – Iran 3: 5% 5 Egypt 0 – Iran 4: 2% Egypt 0 – Iran 5+: 1% Egypt 1 – Iran 0: 7% 7 Egypt 1 – Iran 1: 12% 12 Egypt 1 – Iran 2: 9% 9 Egypt 1 – Iran 3: 5% 5 Egypt 1 – Iran 4: 2% Egypt 1 – Iran 5+: 1% Egypt 2 – Iran 0: 4% 4 Egypt 2 – Iran 1: 6% 6 Egypt 2 – Iran 2: 5% 5 Egypt 2 – Iran 3: 2% Egypt 2 – Iran 4: 1% Egypt 2 – Iran 5+: 0% Egypt 3 – Iran 0: 1% Egypt 3 – Iran 1: 2% Egypt 3 – Iran 2: 1% Egypt 3 – Iran 3: 1% Egypt 3 – Iran 4: 0% Egypt 3 – Iran 5+: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 0: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 1: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 2: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 3: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 4: 0% Egypt 4 – Iran 5+: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 0: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 1: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 2: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 3: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 4: 0% Egypt 5+ – Iran 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Iran goals → Egypt goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model backs Iran as favorite with a 48% win probability, substantially ahead of Egypt's 22% chance. This represents a clear gap between the two sides in the model's assessment, positioning Iran as the likeliest outcome on a neutral ground.

The 30% draw probability sits between the two outright results, suggesting meaningful competitive balance despite Iran's favoring. The gap between Iran's win chance and Egypt's is material—roughly 26 percentage points—yet the inclusion of a draw near 30% indicates the match carries genuine uncertainty and is not a one-sided affair in probabilistic terms.

Model and market diverge markedly here. The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket both accord Egypt roughly double the model's win probability (around 38–39% versus 22%), while compressing Iran's edge to roughly half the model's assessment (25% versus 48%). The gap between model and market on Iran exceeds 20 percentage points. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source is better calibrated in this case.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.