Egypt v Iran

Preview

The model favours Iran at 49%, while Egypt's win probability stands at 22%. This represents a substantial gap, with Iran heavily preferred in the statistical forecast. Iran's edge reflects their higher estimated strength relative to Egypt across the model's underlying parameters.

The draw carries notable weight at 30%, suggesting the match outcome remains genuinely competitive despite Iran's advantage. The win probabilities are spread across all three outcomes, but Iran's lead over Egypt is pronounced—nearly twice as large. A draw is plausible enough that neither team's outright win should be viewed as heavily likely in isolation.

Model and market diverge markedly here. The sportsbook consensus credits Egypt with 41% win probability, roughly double the model's 22%, while backing Iran at only 28%—20 percentage points below the model. Polymarket prices align closely with the books. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct; the large divergence warrants scrutiny of both sources.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.