World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group G · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

New Zealand 1–5 Belgium

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • New Zealand
  • Draw
  • Belgium
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 65%, books 82%, Polymarket 82% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: New Zealand 0.70 − Belgium 2.02 (Belgium +1.31)

New Zealand 0 – Belgium 0: 7% 7 New Zealand 0 – Belgium 1: 13% 13 New Zealand 0 – Belgium 2: 13% 13 New Zealand 0 – Belgium 3: 9% 9 New Zealand 0 – Belgium 4: 5% 5 New Zealand 0 – Belgium 5+: 3% New Zealand 1 – Belgium 0: 4% 4 New Zealand 1 – Belgium 1: 10% 10 New Zealand 1 – Belgium 2: 9% 9 New Zealand 1 – Belgium 3: 6% 6 New Zealand 1 – Belgium 4: 3% 3 New Zealand 1 – Belgium 5+: 2% New Zealand 2 – Belgium 0: 2% New Zealand 2 – Belgium 1: 3% 3 New Zealand 2 – Belgium 2: 3% 3 New Zealand 2 – Belgium 3: 2% New Zealand 2 – Belgium 4: 1% New Zealand 2 – Belgium 5+: 1% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 0: 0% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 1: 1% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 2: 1% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 3: 1% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 4: 0% New Zealand 3 – Belgium 5+: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 0: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 1: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 2: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 3: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 4: 0% New Zealand 4 – Belgium 5+: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 0: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 1: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 2: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 3: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 4: 0% New Zealand 5+ – Belgium 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Belgium goals → New Zealand goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Belgium at 65%, a substantial margin over New Zealand's 11% win probability. Belgium enters as a clear favorite, though the model assigns the underdog a non-negligible chance rather than dismissing it outright.

The 24% draw probability indicates moderate competitive separation. While Belgium is preferred, the outcome space remains reasonably dispersed: roughly two-thirds of the model's probability mass clusters around a Belgium result, but one-quarter points to a stalemate. This suggests the match carries enough uncertainty to avoid appearing predetermined, though a New Zealand upset remains a low-probability tail event.

Model and market diverge meaningfully on all three outcomes. The sportsbook consensus pushes Belgium's win probability to 82%, a gap of 17 percentage points above the model, while compressing both the draw (down 12pp) and New Zealand win (down 5pp) substantially. Polymarket odds align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better captures the true likelihood.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.