World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group I · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Norway 1–4 France

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Norway
  • Draw
  • France
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 55%, books 58%, Polymarket 60% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Norway 0.86 − France 1.74 (France +0.88)

Norway 0 – France 0: 8% 8 Norway 0 – France 1: 13% 13 Norway 0 – France 2: 11% 11 Norway 0 – France 3: 7% 7 Norway 0 – France 4: 3% Norway 0 – France 5+: 1% Norway 1 – France 0: 6% 6 Norway 1 – France 1: 11% 11 Norway 1 – France 2: 10% 10 Norway 1 – France 3: 6% 6 Norway 1 – France 4: 2% Norway 1 – France 5+: 1% Norway 2 – France 0: 3% Norway 2 – France 1: 5% 5 Norway 2 – France 2: 4% 4 Norway 2 – France 3: 2% Norway 2 – France 4: 1% Norway 2 – France 5+: 1% Norway 3 – France 0: 1% Norway 3 – France 1: 1% Norway 3 – France 2: 1% Norway 3 – France 3: 1% Norway 3 – France 4: 0% Norway 3 – France 5+: 0% Norway 4 – France 0: 0% Norway 4 – France 1: 0% Norway 4 – France 2: 0% Norway 4 – France 3: 0% Norway 4 – France 4: 0% Norway 4 – France 5+: 0% Norway 5+ – France 0: 0% Norway 5+ – France 1: 0% Norway 5+ – France 2: 0% Norway 5+ – France 3: 0% Norway 5+ – France 4: 0% Norway 5+ – France 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ France goals → Norway goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates France as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, leaving Norway a 17% chance of victory and a 28% probability of a draw. France enters as the stronger side in this matchup, though the gap to the underdog is not insurmountable on a neutral ground.

The expected outcome distribution reflects a moderately competitive contest. The draw carries meaningful weight at 28%, indicating the sides are separated enough that one outcome leans toward France, yet close enough that a stalemate remains plausible. A France win is the likeliest single result, but the combined probability of Norway not losing (45%) suggests genuine competitive balance in the match itself.

The sportsbook consensus leans slightly more bullish on France, assigning them 60% compared to the model's 55%—a gap of about 5 percentage points. The market also compresses the draw probability to 21%, favoring a decisive outcome more than the model does. Polymarket shows similar movement. These gaps are modest and suggest broad alignment, though traders place fractionally more confidence in a France victory than the statistical forecast does.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.