Senegal v Iraq

Preview

The model favours Senegal to win at 59%, with Iraq given a 13% chance of victory. The underdog's probability reflects a substantial gap, though not an insurmountable one in a single match.

The draw carries 27% probability from the model, making it a material outcome. The 32-percentage-point gap between Senegal's win chance and Iraq's suggests the favourite is preferred but the match remains competitive rather than one-sided. A draw would not be an upset.

The market consensus across sportsbooks and Polymarket prices both favour Senegal more heavily, at 66–67% win probability, versus the model's 59%. The sportsbook and Polymarket readings are tightly aligned with each other. The divergence between model and market is approximately 7–8 percentage points in Senegal's favour. The dashboard does not adjudicate which estimate is more reliable.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.