Group I · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Senegal 5–0 Iraq

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Senegal
Draw
Iraq

Modelbias-corrected

61%

27%

12%

Sportsbookvig stripped

78%

14%

Polymarket

78%

14%

Model gave this result 61%, books 78%, Polymarket 78% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Senegal 1.83 − Iraq 0.80 (Senegal +1.04)

1–012.9%
2–012.1%
1–110.8%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Market more confident than the model · written pre-match

The market puts Senegal 17 pp higher than the model — 78% vs 61%.

The sportsbook consensus assigns Senegal a 77.9% win probability versus the model's 60.9%—a 17-percentage-point gap favoring the favorite. This confidence gap is sharpest on the Senegal win; the market also compresses the draw and Iraq win probabilities below the model's estimates. The market's heightened conviction could reflect recent form, injury updates, or lineup changes that the model's last training data does not capture. Alternatively, real-money flows may simply price in available public information differently than the statistical baseline. The dashboard flags this divergence as a signal worth monitoring; neither source has inherent claim to accuracy until the match outcome is known.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Senegal at 61%, a decisive edge over Iraq's 12% win probability. The market consensus is substantially more confident in a Senegal victory, placing it at 78%—a gap of 17 percentage points. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with the sportsbook view, suggesting broad agreement among commercial forecasters.

The model sees meaningful uncertainty in the outcome. A draw carries 27% probability, making it nearly as likely as an Iraq win when the two are combined. This spread indicates a competitive match where Senegal is favored but not overwhelmingly so. The model assigns roughly one-in-five odds to an upset, reflecting material parity beyond the headline win gap.

The divergence between model and market is substantial. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both compress Iraq's chances to 7–8% and the draw to 13–14%, implying greater confidence in a Senegal victory than the Dixon-Coles framework suggests. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better reflects true match uncertainty; the gap warrants noting that commercial and statistical expectations diverge meaningfully here.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.