Uruguay v Spain

Preview

The model favors Spain at 71%, viewing this as a decisive mismatch. Uruguay's win probability registers at 8%, leaving the visitors facing a steep challenge on neutral ground.

The 71–22–8 split reflects a comfortable advantage for Spain, though the 22% draw probability signals that a stalemate remains a plausible outcome. The gap between the favorite and underdog is substantial, suggesting Spain enters as clear favorites but not prohibitive ones given the width of the draw zone.

The model and market diverge meaningfully. Sportsbooks assign Uruguay 18% and Spain 58%, a gap of roughly 13 percentage points on each side favoring the underdog relative to the model's assessment. Polymarket prices align closely with the books. The dashboard does not claim to know which source is correct; the divergence may reflect different calibrations, information, or risk appetite.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.