World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group H · 26 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Uruguay 0–1 Spain

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Uruguay
  • Draw
  • Spain
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 71%, books 64%, Polymarket 65% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Uruguay 0.61 − Spain 2.21 (Spain +1.61)

Uruguay 0 – Spain 0: 6% 6 Uruguay 0 – Spain 1: 13% 13 Uruguay 0 – Spain 2: 15% 15 Uruguay 0 – Spain 3: 11% 11 Uruguay 0 – Spain 4: 6% 6 Uruguay 0 – Spain 5+: 4% 4 Uruguay 1 – Spain 0: 3% 3 Uruguay 1 – Spain 1: 8% 8 Uruguay 1 – Spain 2: 9% 9 Uruguay 1 – Spain 3: 7% 7 Uruguay 1 – Spain 4: 4% 4 Uruguay 1 – Spain 5+: 2% Uruguay 2 – Spain 0: 1% Uruguay 2 – Spain 1: 2% Uruguay 2 – Spain 2: 3% Uruguay 2 – Spain 3: 2% Uruguay 2 – Spain 4: 1% Uruguay 2 – Spain 5+: 1% Uruguay 3 – Spain 0: 0% Uruguay 3 – Spain 1: 0% Uruguay 3 – Spain 2: 1% Uruguay 3 – Spain 3: 0% Uruguay 3 – Spain 4: 0% Uruguay 3 – Spain 5+: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 0: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 1: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 2: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 3: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 4: 0% Uruguay 4 – Spain 5+: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 0: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 1: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 2: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 3: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 4: 0% Uruguay 5+ – Spain 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Spain goals → Uruguay goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

Spain enters as a clear favorite, with the model assigning the European side a 71% chance of victory against Uruguay's 8%. The gap reflects a substantial disparity in the forecast—Spain is favored by more than eight-to-one odds in model probability terms.

The draw emerges as plausible at 22%, suggesting the match could prove competitive enough to avoid a decisive result, though Spain's win probability dominates the outcome space. The 71–22–8 split indicates Spain is heavily favored but a stalemate or upset remains within the range of likely events rather than negligible.

The model and market exhibit meaningful divergence. The sportsbooks assign Uruguay 5 percentage points more win probability than the model (13% versus 8%), while crediting Spain 8 percentage points less (63% versus 71%). Polymarket prices sit between the two, slightly closer to the consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; users should weigh the differences as they interpret the uncertainty.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.