World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group J · 27 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Algeria 3–3 Austria

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Algeria
  • Draw
  • Austria
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 32%, books 43%, Polymarket 43% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Algeria 1.32 − Austria 1.19 (Algeria +0.13)

Algeria 0 – Austria 0: 9% 9 Algeria 0 – Austria 1: 9% 9 Algeria 0 – Austria 2: 6% 6 Algeria 0 – Austria 3: 2% Algeria 0 – Austria 4: 1% Algeria 0 – Austria 5+: 0% Algeria 1 – Austria 0: 10% 10 Algeria 1 – Austria 1: 13% 13 Algeria 1 – Austria 2: 8% 8 Algeria 1 – Austria 3: 3% Algeria 1 – Austria 4: 1% Algeria 1 – Austria 5+: 0% Algeria 2 – Austria 0: 7% 7 Algeria 2 – Austria 1: 8% 8 Algeria 2 – Austria 2: 5% 5 Algeria 2 – Austria 3: 2% Algeria 2 – Austria 4: 1% Algeria 2 – Austria 5+: 0% Algeria 3 – Austria 0: 3% 3 Algeria 3 – Austria 1: 4% 4 Algeria 3 – Austria 2: 2% Algeria 3 – Austria 3: 1% Algeria 3 – Austria 4: 0% Algeria 3 – Austria 5+: 0% Algeria 4 – Austria 0: 1% Algeria 4 – Austria 1: 1% Algeria 4 – Austria 2: 1% Algeria 4 – Austria 3: 0% Algeria 4 – Austria 4: 0% Algeria 4 – Austria 5+: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 0: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 1: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 2: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 3: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 4: 0% Algeria 5+ – Austria 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Austria goals → Algeria goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Algeria at 39%, substantially ahead of Austria's 30% win probability. Algeria's forecast reflects a narrow edge in the underlying metrics, though Austria remains a competitive underdog with a realistic path to victory.

The 31% draw probability suggests a match likely to remain close through regulation. The win probabilities are tightly bunched—Algeria leads by fewer than 9 percentage points—indicating neither team commands strong dominance. Draws are plausible enough to rank as the second-most likely outcome, pointing toward a competitive contest where tactical discipline and marginal moments may prove decisive.

Model and market diverge notably. The sportsbook consensus and Polymarket both assign Algeria only 23–24%, some 15 percentage points below the model estimate, while both market sources elevate the draw to 43–45%, well above the model's 31%. This gap suggests the market prices Algeria as a clear underdog, whereas the model sees a closer competitive balance. The dashboard makes no claim about which assessment is correct; the divergence reflects genuine disagreement between statistical and market signals.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.