World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group K · 27 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Colombia 0–0 Portugal

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Colombia
  • Draw
  • Portugal
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 32%, books 26%, Polymarket 25% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Colombia 1.22 − Portugal 1.29 (Portugal +0.07)

Colombia 0 – Portugal 0: 9% 9 Colombia 0 – Portugal 1: 10% 10 Colombia 0 – Portugal 2: 7% 7 Colombia 0 – Portugal 3: 3% Colombia 0 – Portugal 4: 1% Colombia 0 – Portugal 5+: 0% Colombia 1 – Portugal 0: 10% 10 Colombia 1 – Portugal 1: 13% 13 Colombia 1 – Portugal 2: 8% 8 Colombia 1 – Portugal 3: 4% 4 Colombia 1 – Portugal 4: 1% Colombia 1 – Portugal 5+: 0% Colombia 2 – Portugal 0: 6% 6 Colombia 2 – Portugal 1: 8% 8 Colombia 2 – Portugal 2: 5% 5 Colombia 2 – Portugal 3: 2% Colombia 2 – Portugal 4: 1% Colombia 2 – Portugal 5+: 0% Colombia 3 – Portugal 0: 2% Colombia 3 – Portugal 1: 3% 3 Colombia 3 – Portugal 2: 2% Colombia 3 – Portugal 3: 1% Colombia 3 – Portugal 4: 0% Colombia 3 – Portugal 5+: 0% Colombia 4 – Portugal 0: 1% Colombia 4 – Portugal 1: 1% Colombia 4 – Portugal 2: 1% Colombia 4 – Portugal 3: 0% Colombia 4 – Portugal 4: 0% Colombia 4 – Portugal 5+: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 0: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 1: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 2: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 3: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 4: 0% Colombia 5+ – Portugal 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Portugal goals → Colombia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates this fixture as nearly even, with Portugal favored marginally at 35% to Colombia's 34%, separated by just one percentage point. The draw probability stands at 32%, suggesting a competitive encounter where all three outcomes cluster within a narrow band.

The compressed win probabilities indicate genuine uncertainty about the outcome. The 31.6% draw chance reflects a match likely to be closely contested rather than one-sided, with neither team commanding a clear advantage in the model's assessment. The three outcomes span only 3 percentage points from lowest to highest, pointing to a closely matched pairing on the available evidence.

The sportsbook consensus diverges meaningfully from the model, favoring Portugal at 48% versus the model's 35%—a gap of roughly 13 percentage points. The market also prices Colombia substantially lower at 27% compared to the model's 34%. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the discrepancy suggests material disagreement on the relative strength of the two sides.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.