Croatia v Ghana

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The model projects Croatia as a strong favorite with a 79% win probability, leaving Ghana a narrow 3% chance of victory. This wide gap reflects a substantially asymmetric matchup in the model's assessment, with the underdog facing steep odds despite the neutral venue.

The draw occupies 18% of the model's distribution, suggesting the match has some competitive texture but Croatia remains heavily favored in the head-to-head outcome. The win gap of 61 percentage points is substantial enough that an upset would represent a notable deviation from the model's central estimate. A draw remains plausible but is clearly not the modal outcome.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge markedly. Books and Polymarket both place Croatia's win probability around 58%, roughly 21 percentage points lower than the model, while simultaneously assigning Ghana nearly seven times higher odds of victory. Both market sources converge closely with each other on all three outcomes. The dashboard does not adjudicate which forecast is more accurate, but the gap is material enough to warrant attention from those building positions.

Written by Claude from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.