World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group K · 27 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • DR Congo
  • Draw
  • Uzbekistan
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 24%, books 56%, Polymarket 56% — markets closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: DR Congo 1.00 − Uzbekistan 1.53 (Uzbekistan +0.53)

DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 0: 8% 8 DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 1: 12% 12 DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 2: 9% 9 DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 3: 5% 5 DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 4: 2% DR Congo 0 – Uzbekistan 5+: 1% DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 0: 8% 8 DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 1: 13% 13 DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 2: 9% 9 DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 3: 5% 5 DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 4: 2% DR Congo 1 – Uzbekistan 5+: 1% DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 0: 4% 4 DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 1: 6% 6 DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 2: 5% 5 DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 3: 2% DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 4: 1% DR Congo 2 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 0: 1% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 1: 2% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 2: 2% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 3: 1% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% DR Congo 3 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 0: 0% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 1: 1% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 2: 0% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 3: 0% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 4: 0% DR Congo 4 – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 0: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 1: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 2: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 3: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 4: 0% DR Congo 5+ – Uzbekistan 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Uzbekistan goals → DR Congo goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Uzbekistan as favorite with a 46% win probability, while assigning DR Congo only a 24% chance of victory. This represents a substantial gap, with the model viewing Uzbekistan as a clear but not dominant preference on a neutral pitch.

The draw carries meaningful probability at 30% according to the model, suggesting the teams are expected to arrive at materially different strengths rather than produce a lopsided contest. The 22-percentage-point spread between Uzbekistan's win probability and DR Congo's indicates a moderately competitive match where the underdog retains realistic paths to success, though the favorite holds clear advantage.

Market consensus diverges sharply from the model. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both favor DR Congo heavily—around 59%—and assign Uzbekistan only 18%. This represents a gap of roughly 34 percentage points between model and market on Uzbekistan's win chance. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better captures the true match dynamics. No additional context on team composition, recent performance, or squad status informs this comparison.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.