World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group J · 27 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Jordan 1–3 Argentina

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Jordan
  • Draw
  • Argentina
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 80%, books 81%, Polymarket 84% — Polymarket closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Jordan 0.47 − Argentina 2.61 (Argentina +2.14)

Jordan 0 – Argentina 0: 5% 5 Jordan 0 – Argentina 1: 12% 12 Jordan 0 – Argentina 2: 16% 16 Jordan 0 – Argentina 3: 14% 14 Jordan 0 – Argentina 4: 9% 9 Jordan 0 – Argentina 5+: 8% 8 Jordan 1 – Argentina 0: 2% Jordan 1 – Argentina 1: 6% 6 Jordan 1 – Argentina 2: 7% 7 Jordan 1 – Argentina 3: 6% 6 Jordan 1 – Argentina 4: 4% 4 Jordan 1 – Argentina 5+: 4% 4 Jordan 2 – Argentina 0: 1% Jordan 2 – Argentina 1: 1% Jordan 2 – Argentina 2: 2% Jordan 2 – Argentina 3: 1% Jordan 2 – Argentina 4: 1% Jordan 2 – Argentina 5+: 1% Jordan 3 – Argentina 0: 0% Jordan 3 – Argentina 1: 0% Jordan 3 – Argentina 2: 0% Jordan 3 – Argentina 3: 0% Jordan 3 – Argentina 4: 0% Jordan 3 – Argentina 5+: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 0: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 1: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 2: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 3: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 4: 0% Jordan 4 – Argentina 5+: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 0: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 1: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 2: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 3: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 4: 0% Jordan 5+ – Argentina 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Argentina goals → Jordan goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Argentina at 80%, with Jordan assigned just 4% to win. That 76-point gap reflects a substantial quality differential. Jordan's underdog position is clear, though a draw remains plausible at 16%.

The W/D/L spread shows Argentina as a heavy favorite, yet the model does not treat the outcome as a near-certainty. A Jordan upset carries minimal probability, but the draw sits between the extremes, suggesting competitive intensity—or at least uncertainty in regulation time. Argentina's win is the dominant outcome by a wide margin.

The model and market are broadly aligned. The market puts Argentina at 83%, modestly higher than the model's 80%, while assigning Jordan a slightly elevated 6% chance compared to the model's 4%. Both sources treat this as an Argentina-favored match with limited upset room. The dashboard makes no claim about which source better reflects true match likelihood.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.