World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Group L · 27 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Panama 0–2 England

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Panama
  • Draw
  • England
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 63%, books 82%, Polymarket 85% — Polymarket closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Panama 0.73 − England 1.97 (England +1.24)

Panama 0 – England 0: 7% 7 Panama 0 – England 1: 13% 13 Panama 0 – England 2: 13% 13 Panama 0 – England 3: 9% 9 Panama 0 – England 4: 4% 4 Panama 0 – England 5+: 2% Panama 1 – England 0: 5% 5 Panama 1 – England 1: 10% 10 Panama 1 – England 2: 10% 10 Panama 1 – England 3: 6% 6 Panama 1 – England 4: 3% 3 Panama 1 – England 5+: 2% Panama 2 – England 0: 2% Panama 2 – England 1: 4% 4 Panama 2 – England 2: 3% 3 Panama 2 – England 3: 2% Panama 2 – England 4: 1% Panama 2 – England 5+: 1% Panama 3 – England 0: 0% Panama 3 – England 1: 1% Panama 3 – England 2: 1% Panama 3 – England 3: 1% Panama 3 – England 4: 0% Panama 3 – England 5+: 0% Panama 4 – England 0: 0% Panama 4 – England 1: 0% Panama 4 – England 2: 0% Panama 4 – England 3: 0% Panama 4 – England 4: 0% Panama 4 – England 5+: 0% Panama 5+ – England 0: 0% Panama 5+ – England 1: 0% Panama 5+ – England 2: 0% Panama 5+ – England 3: 0% Panama 5+ – England 4: 0% Panama 5+ – England 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ England goals → Panama goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates England as a strong favorite, assigning them a 63% win probability against Panama's 12%. This represents a substantial gap, though the model grants Panama a non-trivial chance rather than treating the match as a foregone conclusion.

The draw carries meaningful weight in the model's assessment at 25%, suggesting a competitive match with plausible stalemate outcomes. The spread between England's win probability and Panama's reflects a clear hierarchy, but the combined 37% chance of either a draw or Panama victory indicates the underdog scenario is not negligible from a statistical standpoint.

The sportsbook consensus diverges notably from the model. Books price England's win at 82%, roughly 19 percentage points higher than the model, while assigning Panama just 6% and the draw 12%. Polymarket contracts show similar skepticism toward Panama. The dashboard makes no claim as to which assessment is more accurate; the divergence may reflect information not captured in the model's inputs or different risk appetites among market participants.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.