World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 28 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

South Africa 0–1 Canada

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • South Africa
  • Draw
  • Canada
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 65%, books 58%, Polymarket 59% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: South Africa 0.70 − Canada 2.02 (Canada +1.33)

South Africa 0 – Canada 0: 7% 7 South Africa 0 – Canada 1: 13% 13 South Africa 0 – Canada 2: 13% 13 South Africa 0 – Canada 3: 9% 9 South Africa 0 – Canada 4: 5% 5 South Africa 0 – Canada 5+: 3% South Africa 1 – Canada 0: 4% 4 South Africa 1 – Canada 1: 10% 10 South Africa 1 – Canada 2: 9% 9 South Africa 1 – Canada 3: 6% 6 South Africa 1 – Canada 4: 3% 3 South Africa 1 – Canada 5+: 2% South Africa 2 – Canada 0: 2% South Africa 2 – Canada 1: 3% 3 South Africa 2 – Canada 2: 3% 3 South Africa 2 – Canada 3: 2% South Africa 2 – Canada 4: 1% South Africa 2 – Canada 5+: 1% South Africa 3 – Canada 0: 0% South Africa 3 – Canada 1: 1% South Africa 3 – Canada 2: 1% South Africa 3 – Canada 3: 1% South Africa 3 – Canada 4: 0% South Africa 3 – Canada 5+: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 0: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 1: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 2: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 3: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 4: 0% South Africa 4 – Canada 5+: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 0: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 1: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 2: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 3: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 4: 0% South Africa 5+ – Canada 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Canada goals → South Africa goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Canada at 65%, with South Africa positioned as a clear underdog at just 11%. The gap of 54 percentage points reflects a substantial disparity in expected competitive strength between the two sides.

The draw carries meaningful probability at 24%, suggesting that while Canada is the statistical favorite, a deadlock remains plausible. The win probabilities are wide-set rather than clustered, indicating the match is expected to be decisive rather than tightly matched, though draws occur frequently enough in football that one cannot be dismissed.

The model and sportsbooks diverge materially. The market assigns Canada only 58%, roughly 7 percentage points lower than the model, while crediting South Africa with 17% compared to the model's 11%. Polymarket prices align more closely with the model's Canada projection. The dashboard makes no claim as to which assessment is correct; the spread reflects genuine disagreement among information sources.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.