World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 29 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Brazil 2–1 Japan

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Brazil
  • Draw
  • Japan
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 39%, books 57%, Polymarket 57% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Brazil 1.32 − Japan 1.18 (Brazil +0.14)

Brazil 0 – Japan 0: 9% 9 Brazil 0 – Japan 1: 9% 9 Brazil 0 – Japan 2: 6% 6 Brazil 0 – Japan 3: 2% Brazil 0 – Japan 4: 1% Brazil 0 – Japan 5+: 0% Brazil 1 – Japan 0: 10% 10 Brazil 1 – Japan 1: 13% 13 Brazil 1 – Japan 2: 8% 8 Brazil 1 – Japan 3: 3% Brazil 1 – Japan 4: 1% Brazil 1 – Japan 5+: 0% Brazil 2 – Japan 0: 7% 7 Brazil 2 – Japan 1: 8% 8 Brazil 2 – Japan 2: 5% 5 Brazil 2 – Japan 3: 2% Brazil 2 – Japan 4: 1% Brazil 2 – Japan 5+: 0% Brazil 3 – Japan 0: 3% 3 Brazil 3 – Japan 1: 4% 4 Brazil 3 – Japan 2: 2% Brazil 3 – Japan 3: 1% Brazil 3 – Japan 4: 0% Brazil 3 – Japan 5+: 0% Brazil 4 – Japan 0: 1% Brazil 4 – Japan 1: 1% Brazil 4 – Japan 2: 1% Brazil 4 – Japan 3: 0% Brazil 4 – Japan 4: 0% Brazil 4 – Japan 5+: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 0: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 1: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 2: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 3: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 4: 0% Brazil 5+ – Japan 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Japan goals → Brazil goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Brazil at 39%, but Japan's chance of 30% makes this a notably competitive fixture rather than a heavily tilted matchup. The underdog sits just 9 percentage points behind, suggesting meaningful vulnerability for the favorite.

The draw at 32% emerges as the modal outcome in the model's distribution, indicating the teams are closely matched in underlying strength. Brazil's modest win probability reflects a narrow advantage; a decisive result either way has similar plausibility, and the match appears likely to remain contested throughout.

The market diverges sharply from the model. Sportsbooks place Brazil at 56%, a gap of 17 percentage points above the model's 39%, and compress Japan to 18%—nearly half the model's estimate. Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard makes no claim about which source is correct; the discrepancy suggests materially different assessments of relative team quality.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.