World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 29 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Germany 1–1 Paraguay

Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Germany
  • Draw
  • Paraguay
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 28%, books 19%, Polymarket 19% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Germany 1.73 − Paraguay 0.86 (Germany +0.87)

Germany 0 – Paraguay 0: 8% 8 Germany 0 – Paraguay 1: 6% 6 Germany 0 – Paraguay 2: 3% Germany 0 – Paraguay 3: 1% Germany 0 – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 0 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Germany 1 – Paraguay 0: 13% 13 Germany 1 – Paraguay 1: 11% 11 Germany 1 – Paraguay 2: 5% 5 Germany 1 – Paraguay 3: 1% Germany 1 – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 1 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Germany 2 – Paraguay 0: 11% 11 Germany 2 – Paraguay 1: 10% 10 Germany 2 – Paraguay 2: 4% 4 Germany 2 – Paraguay 3: 1% Germany 2 – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 2 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Germany 3 – Paraguay 0: 6% 6 Germany 3 – Paraguay 1: 6% 6 Germany 3 – Paraguay 2: 2% Germany 3 – Paraguay 3: 1% Germany 3 – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 3 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Germany 4 – Paraguay 0: 3% Germany 4 – Paraguay 1: 2% Germany 4 – Paraguay 2: 1% Germany 4 – Paraguay 3: 0% Germany 4 – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 4 – Paraguay 5+: 0% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 0: 1% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 1: 1% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 2: 0% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 3: 0% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 4: 0% Germany 5+ – Paraguay 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Paraguay goals → Germany goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model backs Germany to win at 57%, with Paraguay's chance standing at 15%. This represents a moderate favorite rather than a dominant one; the model assigns meaningful probability to an upset, reflecting competitive uncertainty despite the gap in win chances.

The 28% draw probability shapes the match as genuinely competitive. A draw is nearly as likely as a Paraguay win outright, suggesting close scorelines are plausible. The spread across outcomes—no single result exceeding 57%—indicates the model expects a closely contested encounter without a clear consensus outcome.

The market diverges notably from the model. Sportsbooks price Germany's win at 72%, roughly 15 percentage points higher than the model, while pricing Paraguay at 10% rather than 15%. Polymarket prices align closely with the books. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the gap suggests material disagreement on Germany's edge in this fixture.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.