World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 29 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Netherlands 1–1 Morocco

Morocco won 3-2 on penalties

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Netherlands
  • Draw
  • Morocco
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 32%, books 30%, Polymarket 30% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Netherlands 1.20 − Morocco 1.30 (Morocco +0.09)

Netherlands 0 – Morocco 0: 9% 9 Netherlands 0 – Morocco 1: 10% 10 Netherlands 0 – Morocco 2: 7% 7 Netherlands 0 – Morocco 3: 3% Netherlands 0 – Morocco 4: 1% Netherlands 0 – Morocco 5+: 0% Netherlands 1 – Morocco 0: 10% 10 Netherlands 1 – Morocco 1: 13% 13 Netherlands 1 – Morocco 2: 8% 8 Netherlands 1 – Morocco 3: 4% 4 Netherlands 1 – Morocco 4: 1% Netherlands 1 – Morocco 5+: 0% Netherlands 2 – Morocco 0: 6% 6 Netherlands 2 – Morocco 1: 8% 8 Netherlands 2 – Morocco 2: 5% 5 Netherlands 2 – Morocco 3: 2% Netherlands 2 – Morocco 4: 1% Netherlands 2 – Morocco 5+: 0% Netherlands 3 – Morocco 0: 2% Netherlands 3 – Morocco 1: 3% 3 Netherlands 3 – Morocco 2: 2% Netherlands 3 – Morocco 3: 1% Netherlands 3 – Morocco 4: 0% Netherlands 3 – Morocco 5+: 0% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 0: 1% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 1: 1% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 2: 1% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 3: 0% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 4: 0% Netherlands 4 – Morocco 5+: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 0: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 1: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 2: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 3: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 4: 0% Netherlands 5+ – Morocco 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Morocco goals → Netherlands goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Morocco a marginal favorite at 35%, with the Netherlands at 33% and a draw at 32%. The spread is tight: no outcome commands a clear majority, and the three possibilities occupy a narrow band around one-third each. This signals a closely matched encounter where variance will matter significantly.

The W/D/L distribution underscores competitive balance. The draw probability at 32% reflects genuine parity; neither team holds a decisive edge in the model's view. Morocco's 2-point lead over the Netherlands is modest enough that the fixture could plausibly unfold in any direction. All three outcomes remain live probabilities rather than longshots.

The sportsbook consensus diverges meaningfully from the model. Books favor the Netherlands at 43%, a 9-point gap above the model, and price Morocco at 27%, some 8 points below model estimates. The draw sits near consensus at 31%. The dashboard does not claim to know which assessment is correct; the discrepancy reflects genuine disagreement between statistical and market-derived expectations.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.