World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Round of 32 · 30 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Côte d'Ivoire 1–2 Norway

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Draw
  • Norway
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 52%, books 45%, Polymarket 45% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Côte d'Ivoire 0.91 − Norway 1.66 (Norway +0.75)

Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 0: 8% 8 Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 1: 12% 12 Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 2: 11% 11 Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 3: 6% 6 Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 4: 2% Côte d'Ivoire 0 – Norway 5+: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 0: 7% 7 Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 1: 12% 12 Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 2: 10% 10 Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 3: 5% 5 Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 4: 2% Côte d'Ivoire 1 – Norway 5+: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 0: 3% 3 Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 1: 5% 5 Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 2: 4% 4 Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 3: 2% Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 4: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 2 – Norway 5+: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 0: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 1: 2% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 2: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 3: 1% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 4: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 3 – Norway 5+: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 0: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 1: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 2: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 3: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 4: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 4 – Norway 5+: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 0: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 1: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 2: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 3: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 4: 0% Côte d'Ivoire 5+ – Norway 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Norway goals → Côte d'Ivoire goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Norway at 52% to win, with Ivory Coast at 20% and a draw at 29%. Norway enters as a clear statistical favorite, though the gap to the underdog is not overwhelming—a 32-percentage-point advantage leaves meaningful room for upset scenarios.

The draw emerges as the second-most-likely outcome at 29%, nearly level with Ivory Coast's win probability. This suggests a competitive match where neither side dominates the model's distribution. The spread between Norway's mode (52%) and the draw (29%) indicates the favorite is expected to edge a contested encounter rather than control it decisively.

The sportsbook consensus shifts probability toward Ivory Coast relative to the model, pricing them 7 percentage points higher at 27% while moving Norway down to 45%. Polymarket prices align closely with the books on Ivory Coast (26%) and the draw (28%), though both markets lean slightly away from the model's Norway weighting. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.