World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 30 June 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Mexico 2–0 Ecuador

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Mexico
  • Draw
  • Ecuador
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 36%, books 42%, Polymarket 43% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Mexico 1.26 − Ecuador 1.24 (Mexico +0.03)

Mexico 0 – Ecuador 0: 9% 9 Mexico 0 – Ecuador 1: 10% 10 Mexico 0 – Ecuador 2: 6% 6 Mexico 0 – Ecuador 3: 3% Mexico 0 – Ecuador 4: 1% Mexico 0 – Ecuador 5+: 0% Mexico 1 – Ecuador 0: 10% 10 Mexico 1 – Ecuador 1: 13% 13 Mexico 1 – Ecuador 2: 8% 8 Mexico 1 – Ecuador 3: 3% 3 Mexico 1 – Ecuador 4: 1% Mexico 1 – Ecuador 5+: 0% Mexico 2 – Ecuador 0: 7% 7 Mexico 2 – Ecuador 1: 8% 8 Mexico 2 – Ecuador 2: 5% 5 Mexico 2 – Ecuador 3: 2% Mexico 2 – Ecuador 4: 1% Mexico 2 – Ecuador 5+: 0% Mexico 3 – Ecuador 0: 3% Mexico 3 – Ecuador 1: 3% 3 Mexico 3 – Ecuador 2: 2% Mexico 3 – Ecuador 3: 1% Mexico 3 – Ecuador 4: 0% Mexico 3 – Ecuador 5+: 0% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 0: 1% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 1: 1% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 2: 1% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 3: 0% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 4: 0% Mexico 4 – Ecuador 5+: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 0: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 1: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 2: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 3: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 4: 0% Mexico 5+ – Ecuador 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Ecuador goals → Mexico goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Mexico as the modest favorite at 36%, with Ecuador's win probability nearly matching at 32% and a draw at 32%. This is a tightly bunched outcome distribution, reflecting competitive balance rather than a pronounced edge for either side.

The compressed win probabilities indicate a match likely to be closely contested across all three outcomes. A draw represents a genuine possibility at nearly one-third likelihood, suggesting neither team is strongly positioned to dominate. The gap between Mexico's favorite status and Ecuador's underdog role spans only 4 percentage points, which underscores how evenly matched the forecast sees this encounter.

The sportsbook consensus departs meaningfully from the model. Books price Mexico's win at 42.5%—a 6-point premium over the model—while compressing Ecuador to 24.5%, roughly 8 points below the model's estimate. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with the sportsbooks. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the divergence suggests material disagreement about Mexico's edge and Ecuador's competitive standing.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.