World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 1 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Belgium 3–2 Senegal

After extra time

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Belgium
  • Draw
  • Senegal
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 32%, books 29%, Polymarket 29% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Belgium 1.29 − Senegal 1.21 (Belgium +0.08)

Belgium 0 – Senegal 0: 9% 9 Belgium 0 – Senegal 1: 10% 10 Belgium 0 – Senegal 2: 6% 6 Belgium 0 – Senegal 3: 2% Belgium 0 – Senegal 4: 1% Belgium 0 – Senegal 5+: 0% Belgium 1 – Senegal 0: 10% 10 Belgium 1 – Senegal 1: 13% 13 Belgium 1 – Senegal 2: 8% 8 Belgium 1 – Senegal 3: 3% 3 Belgium 1 – Senegal 4: 1% Belgium 1 – Senegal 5+: 0% Belgium 2 – Senegal 0: 7% 7 Belgium 2 – Senegal 1: 8% 8 Belgium 2 – Senegal 2: 5% 5 Belgium 2 – Senegal 3: 2% Belgium 2 – Senegal 4: 1% Belgium 2 – Senegal 5+: 0% Belgium 3 – Senegal 0: 3% Belgium 3 – Senegal 1: 4% 4 Belgium 3 – Senegal 2: 2% Belgium 3 – Senegal 3: 1% Belgium 3 – Senegal 4: 0% Belgium 3 – Senegal 5+: 0% Belgium 4 – Senegal 0: 1% Belgium 4 – Senegal 1: 1% Belgium 4 – Senegal 2: 1% Belgium 4 – Senegal 3: 0% Belgium 4 – Senegal 4: 0% Belgium 4 – Senegal 5+: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 0: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 1: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 2: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 3: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 4: 0% Belgium 5+ – Senegal 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Senegal goals → Belgium goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Belgium to win at 37%, though the margin over Senegal is modest at 6 percentage points. Senegal's chances stand at 31%, leaving the teams closely bunched in a genuinely competitive forecast. A draw appears plausible at nearly 32%, reflecting the statistical likelihood of a stalemate outcome.

The narrow spread across all three outcomes indicates a match with no clear separation. Belgium holds a slight edge in the model's view, but Senegal enters with realistic odds of victory. The draw probability—sitting between the two teams' win chances—suggests the match could unfold in multiple ways without a decisive favorite emerging in either team's favor.

The market consensus departs from the model by 7 percentage points on the Belgium win, assigning them 44% versus the model's 37%. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both lean materially more bullish on Belgium than the statistical forecast, while pricing Senegal approximately 5 percentage points lower. The dashboard makes no claim about which source better reflects the true probabilities; the divergence is notable enough to warrant tracking.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.