World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 1 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

England 2–1 DR Congo

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • England
  • Draw
  • DR Congo
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 78%, books 75%, Polymarket 76% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: England 2.39 − DR Congo 0.54 (England +1.85)

England 0 – DR Congo 0: 6% 6 England 0 – DR Congo 1: 3% England 0 – DR Congo 2: 1% England 0 – DR Congo 3: 0% England 0 – DR Congo 4: 0% England 0 – DR Congo 5+: 0% England 1 – DR Congo 0: 13% 13 England 1 – DR Congo 1: 7% 7 England 1 – DR Congo 2: 2% England 1 – DR Congo 3: 0% England 1 – DR Congo 4: 0% England 1 – DR Congo 5+: 0% England 2 – DR Congo 0: 15% 15 England 2 – DR Congo 1: 8% 8 England 2 – DR Congo 2: 2% England 2 – DR Congo 3: 0% England 2 – DR Congo 4: 0% England 2 – DR Congo 5+: 0% England 3 – DR Congo 0: 12% 12 England 3 – DR Congo 1: 7% 7 England 3 – DR Congo 2: 2% England 3 – DR Congo 3: 0% England 3 – DR Congo 4: 0% England 3 – DR Congo 5+: 0% England 4 – DR Congo 0: 7% 7 England 4 – DR Congo 1: 4% 4 England 4 – DR Congo 2: 1% England 4 – DR Congo 3: 0% England 4 – DR Congo 4: 0% England 4 – DR Congo 5+: 0% England 5+ – DR Congo 0: 6% 6 England 5+ – DR Congo 1: 3% England 5+ – DR Congo 2: 1% England 5+ – DR Congo 3: 0% England 5+ – DR Congo 4: 0% England 5+ – DR Congo 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ DR Congo goals → England goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model assigns England a 78% chance of victory, leaving DR Congo with only a 3% path to a win. The underdog faces a steep climb; the gap between the two outcomes reflects a heavily favored favorite.

The draw emerges as the most plausible alternative outcome at 19%, lending some competitive texture to the match. England's win probability is substantially higher than either the draw or a DR Congo victory, yet the 19-point margin to the draw suggests the match carries enough uncertainty to avoid being a near-certain blowout.

Model and sportsbook consensus align closely across all three outcomes, with gaps of 3 percentage points or less. Polymarket pricing sits similarly tight to both. The three sources are in agreement: England is the clear favorite, a draw is credible, and a DR Congo upset remains a longshot.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.