World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 1 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

USA 2–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • USA
  • Draw
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 66%, books 69%, Polymarket 70% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: USA 1.98 − Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.72 (USA +1.26)

USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 7% 7 USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 5% 5 USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 2% USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 0 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 13% 13 USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 10% 10 USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 3% 3 USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 1% USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 1 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 13% 13 USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 9% 9 USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 3% 3 USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 1% USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 2 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 9% 9 USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 6% 6 USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 2% USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 1% USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 3 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 4% 4 USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 3% 3 USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 1% USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 4 – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 0: 2% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 1: 2% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 2: 1% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 3: 0% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 4: 0% USA 5+ – Bosnia and Herzegovina 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Bosnia and Herzegovina goals → USA goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors the USA with a 66.5% win probability, leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina with a slim 9.0% chance of victory. This reflects a substantial gap between the two sides according to the statistical forecast, though the underdog is not ruled out.

The 24.6% draw probability suggests the match has room for a stalemate outcome. The spread across all three results—with the USA's advantage meaningful but the draw plausible—indicates a competitive fixture rather than a heavily one-sided affair. Bosnia and Herzegovina's 9.0% suggests upset potential exists, albeit at modest odds.

No conventional sportsbook consensus is yet available for this fixture. The Polymarket prices show extreme readings (USA at 100%, both alternatives at 0%) that do not align with the model's forecast. The dashboard makes no claim about which source is correct; the divergence is notable and may reflect thin liquidity or information asymmetry in the prediction market at this stage.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.