World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 2 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Portugal 2–1 Croatia

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Portugal
  • Draw
  • Croatia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 51%, books 55%, Polymarket 55% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Portugal 1.58 − Croatia 0.97 (Portugal +0.61)

Portugal 0 – Croatia 0: 8% 8 Portugal 0 – Croatia 1: 7% 7 Portugal 0 – Croatia 2: 4% 4 Portugal 0 – Croatia 3: 1% Portugal 0 – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 0 – Croatia 5+: 0% Portugal 1 – Croatia 0: 12% 12 Portugal 1 – Croatia 1: 12% 12 Portugal 1 – Croatia 2: 6% 6 Portugal 1 – Croatia 3: 2% Portugal 1 – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 1 – Croatia 5+: 0% Portugal 2 – Croatia 0: 10% 10 Portugal 2 – Croatia 1: 9% 9 Portugal 2 – Croatia 2: 5% 5 Portugal 2 – Croatia 3: 1% Portugal 2 – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 2 – Croatia 5+: 0% Portugal 3 – Croatia 0: 5% 5 Portugal 3 – Croatia 1: 5% 5 Portugal 3 – Croatia 2: 2% Portugal 3 – Croatia 3: 1% Portugal 3 – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 3 – Croatia 5+: 0% Portugal 4 – Croatia 0: 2% Portugal 4 – Croatia 1: 2% Portugal 4 – Croatia 2: 1% Portugal 4 – Croatia 3: 0% Portugal 4 – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 4 – Croatia 5+: 0% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 0: 1% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 1: 1% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 2: 0% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 3: 0% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 4: 0% Portugal 5+ – Croatia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Croatia goals → Portugal goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Portugal as a slight favorite with a 51% win probability, while Croatia enters with a 20% chance of victory. The gap reflects a modest edge for Portugal, but the outcome remains genuinely uncertain across the distribution.

The draw carries meaningful probability at 30%, suggesting the teams are close enough in quality that a stalemate represents a plausible result. The win probabilities are not separated by a wide margin, indicating a competitive match where either side retains a legitimate path to three points. A decisive result is marginally more likely than a draw, but only by a small margin.

The model and sportsbooks show modest alignment on the overall favorite but diverge in the details. Books price Portugal's win probability about 4 percentage points higher than the model, while the draw sits about 4 points lower. Polymarket prices cluster near the consensus. The divergence is small enough that both sources point to a tight contest, though market participants attach slightly more weight to a Portugal victory than the model does.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.