World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 2 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Spain 3–0 Austria

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Spain
  • Draw
  • Austria
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 80%, books 72%, Polymarket 74% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Spain 2.47 − Austria 0.51 (Spain +1.96)

Spain 0 – Austria 0: 5% 5 Spain 0 – Austria 1: 2% Spain 0 – Austria 2: 1% Spain 0 – Austria 3: 0% Spain 0 – Austria 4: 0% Spain 0 – Austria 5+: 0% Spain 1 – Austria 0: 12% 12 Spain 1 – Austria 1: 7% 7 Spain 1 – Austria 2: 2% Spain 1 – Austria 3: 0% Spain 1 – Austria 4: 0% Spain 1 – Austria 5+: 0% Spain 2 – Austria 0: 15% 15 Spain 2 – Austria 1: 8% 8 Spain 2 – Austria 2: 2% Spain 2 – Austria 3: 0% Spain 2 – Austria 4: 0% Spain 2 – Austria 5+: 0% Spain 3 – Austria 0: 13% 13 Spain 3 – Austria 1: 7% 7 Spain 3 – Austria 2: 2% Spain 3 – Austria 3: 0% Spain 3 – Austria 4: 0% Spain 3 – Austria 5+: 0% Spain 4 – Austria 0: 8% 8 Spain 4 – Austria 1: 4% 4 Spain 4 – Austria 2: 1% Spain 4 – Austria 3: 0% Spain 4 – Austria 4: 0% Spain 4 – Austria 5+: 0% Spain 5+ – Austria 0: 6% 6 Spain 5+ – Austria 1: 3% 3 Spain 5+ – Austria 2: 1% Spain 5+ – Austria 3: 0% Spain 5+ – Austria 4: 0% Spain 5+ – Austria 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Austria goals → Spain goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Spain as a clear favorite with a 80% win probability, leaving Austria a narrow 2% chance of victory. The gap reflects a substantial disparity in the underlying Elo ratings and expected output metrics between the two sides. Austria's path to three points appears minimal under the statistical framework.

The outcome distribution shows Spain heavily favored but not utterly dominant. A draw at 18% represents a plausible outcome, suggesting the match carries genuine competitive elements despite the lopsided win probabilities. The combined non-Spain probability of 20% indicates a low but real chance of upset or stalemate, rather than a one-sided coronation.

The model and market diverge on Austria's chances. The sportsbooks assign the underdog 10%, nearly four times the model's 2% estimate, while Polymarket sits between at 8%. Both commercial and prediction-market prices converge on Spain around 72–74%, slightly below the model's 80%. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct; the divergence may reflect public bias, liquidity patterns, or alternative statistical approaches the market employs.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.