World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 2 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Switzerland 2–0 Algeria

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Switzerland
  • Draw
  • Algeria
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 41%, books 47%, Polymarket 47% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Switzerland 1.36 − Algeria 1.15 (Switzerland +0.21)

Switzerland 0 – Algeria 0: 9% 9 Switzerland 0 – Algeria 1: 9% 9 Switzerland 0 – Algeria 2: 5% 5 Switzerland 0 – Algeria 3: 2% Switzerland 0 – Algeria 4: 1% Switzerland 0 – Algeria 5+: 0% Switzerland 1 – Algeria 0: 11% 11 Switzerland 1 – Algeria 1: 13% 13 Switzerland 1 – Algeria 2: 7% 7 Switzerland 1 – Algeria 3: 3% Switzerland 1 – Algeria 4: 1% Switzerland 1 – Algeria 5+: 0% Switzerland 2 – Algeria 0: 8% 8 Switzerland 2 – Algeria 1: 9% 9 Switzerland 2 – Algeria 2: 5% 5 Switzerland 2 – Algeria 3: 2% Switzerland 2 – Algeria 4: 1% Switzerland 2 – Algeria 5+: 0% Switzerland 3 – Algeria 0: 3% 3 Switzerland 3 – Algeria 1: 4% 4 Switzerland 3 – Algeria 2: 2% Switzerland 3 – Algeria 3: 1% Switzerland 3 – Algeria 4: 0% Switzerland 3 – Algeria 5+: 0% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 0: 1% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 1: 1% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 2: 1% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 3: 0% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 4: 0% Switzerland 4 – Algeria 5+: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 0: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 1: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 2: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 3: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 4: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Algeria 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Algeria goals → Switzerland goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Switzerland as the marginal favorite with a 41% win probability, while Algeria holds a 28% chance of victory. The gap between the two is modest rather than decisive, placing this match in competitive territory despite Switzerland's edge.

The draw probability of 31% suggests a notably plausible stalemate outcome. The spread across all three results is relatively even, with no single result commanding a clear majority. This distribution points to a closely matched encounter where either a Swiss victory, a draw, or an Algerian upset remain realistic scenarios within the model's forecast.

The sportsbook consensus diverges from the model by approximately 6 percentage points on a Swiss win, with books favoring Switzerland more heavily at 47% compared to the model's 41%. The market rates Algeria's chances lower at 23%, whereas the model assigns 28%. Draw probabilities align closely. The dashboard does not claim superiority between these sources; the divergence likely reflects different methodologies and information sets in play.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.