Argentina 3–2 Cabo Verde
After extra time (1–1 at 90')
Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff
- Argentina
- Draw
- Cabo Verde
Model gave this result 10%, books 11%, Polymarket 11% — all sources missed.
Most likely scorelines
Model expected goals: Argentina 3.35 − Cabo Verde 0.31 (Argentina +3.04)
- 3–016.1%
- 2–014.4%
- 4–013.5%
Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.
Pre-match preview
The model favors Argentina at 90%, leaving Cape Verde with minimal win probability at 0%. The underdog's path to victory is essentially closed off by the statistical forecast, though a draw registers as a low but non-zero possibility at 10%.
The win-draw-loss spread reflects a heavily asymmetric contest. Argentina's dominance in the model's assessment is substantial; Cape Verde appears unlikely to find a path to three points. A stalemate remains the only realistic alternative to an Argentina victory within the model's framework, though that scenario carries modest odds.
The model and market diverge meaningfully here. The sportsbook consensus grants Cape Verde a 4.5% win probability—roughly 4 percentage points above the model's floor—and assigns the draw at 11.5%, compared to the model's 10%. Polymarket pricing sits between the two, closer to the market view. The dashboard does not adjudicate which source better reflects underlying match dynamics.
Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.