World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 32 · 3 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Australia 1–1 Egypt

Egypt won 4-2 on penalties

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Australia
  • Draw
  • Egypt
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 29%, books 33%, Polymarket 33% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Australia 1.65 − Egypt 0.92 (Australia +0.73)

Australia 0 – Egypt 0: 8% 8 Australia 0 – Egypt 1: 7% 7 Australia 0 – Egypt 2: 3% 3 Australia 0 – Egypt 3: 1% Australia 0 – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 0 – Egypt 5+: 0% Australia 1 – Egypt 0: 12% 12 Australia 1 – Egypt 1: 12% 12 Australia 1 – Egypt 2: 5% 5 Australia 1 – Egypt 3: 2% Australia 1 – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 1 – Egypt 5+: 0% Australia 2 – Egypt 0: 10% 10 Australia 2 – Egypt 1: 10% 10 Australia 2 – Egypt 2: 4% 4 Australia 2 – Egypt 3: 1% Australia 2 – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 2 – Egypt 5+: 0% Australia 3 – Egypt 0: 6% 6 Australia 3 – Egypt 1: 5% 5 Australia 3 – Egypt 2: 2% Australia 3 – Egypt 3: 1% Australia 3 – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 3 – Egypt 5+: 0% Australia 4 – Egypt 0: 2% Australia 4 – Egypt 1: 2% Australia 4 – Egypt 2: 1% Australia 4 – Egypt 3: 0% Australia 4 – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 4 – Egypt 5+: 0% Australia 5+ – Egypt 0: 1% Australia 5+ – Egypt 1: 1% Australia 5+ – Egypt 2: 0% Australia 5+ – Egypt 3: 0% Australia 5+ – Egypt 4: 0% Australia 5+ – Egypt 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Egypt goals → Australia goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours Australia at 54% to win, with Egypt holding a 17% chance of victory. The underdog faces a substantial gap; the model sees the match tilted clearly toward the Australian side, though not overwhelmingly so.

The draw probability of 29% suggests reasonable competitive balance in how the match might unfold. Australia's advantage in the win column does not imply dominance across the board—nearly three in ten instances result in a stalemate, indicating the teams could be close enough in execution that a goal separates them only occasionally. The spread between Australia's win and Egypt's win is wide enough to register model preference, but the presence of a substantial draw zone keeps the contest from appearing lopsided.

The model and market diverge significantly here. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both favour Egypt at roughly 40%, inverting the model's assessment by more than 25 percentage points. Both market sources align closely with each other and see a draw as slightly more likely than the model does. The dashboard does not adjudicate between model and market; users should weigh both signals according to their own confidence in each approach.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.