Round of 32 · 3 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Colombia 1–0 Ghana

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

Colombia
Draw
Ghana

Modelbias-corrected

86%

14%

Sportsbookvig stripped

67%

22%

11%

Polymarket

68%

21%

10%

Model gave this result 86%, books 67%, Polymarket 68% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Colombia 2.85 − Ghana 0.41 (Colombia +2.44)

2–015.7%
3–014.9%
1–010.9%

Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Market hedges more than the model · written pre-match

The model puts Colombia 19 pp higher than the market — 86% vs 67%.

The model assigns Colombia a 86% win probability while the sportsbook consensus stands at 67%—a 19-percentage-point gap favoring the model's confidence in a Colombian victory. The market simultaneously prices Ghana's chances at 11%, whereas the model sees virtually none. This divergence suggests the market may be responding to recent form, injury developments, or lineup changes that have emerged since the model's last update and that tilt toward greater competitive balance than the underlying rating differential implies. The dashboard flags this as a signal worth monitoring; it does not indicate which assessment of Colombia's true advantage is more reliable.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Colombia heavily, assigning an 86% win probability and leaving Ghana with virtually no chance. The underdog is estimated to secure a draw in 14% of simulations, while the model rules out an outright Ghana victory in its forecast.

The W/D/L spread reflects a large gap between the favorite and draw outcome. Colombia's dominant modeled edge means a decisive result is the likeliest scenario, though the 14% draw probability indicates the match retains some competitive structure rather than appearing predetermined. A Ghana win sits outside the model's credible range.

A meaningful divergence separates model and market. The sportsbook consensus assigns Colombia only 67%, while assigning Ghana a 11% chance of victory—a gap of roughly 19 percentage points on the win market. Polymarket prices align more closely with the books than with the model. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the scale of disagreement warrants attention from users evaluating this fixture.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.