World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 4 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Canada 0–3 Morocco

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Canada
  • Draw
  • Morocco
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 49%, books 53%, Polymarket 54% — sources agreed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Canada 0.96 − Morocco 1.60 (Morocco +0.64)

Canada 0 – Morocco 0: 8% 8 Canada 0 – Morocco 1: 12% 12 Canada 0 – Morocco 2: 10% 10 Canada 0 – Morocco 3: 5% 5 Canada 0 – Morocco 4: 2% Canada 0 – Morocco 5+: 1% Canada 1 – Morocco 0: 7% 7 Canada 1 – Morocco 1: 12% 12 Canada 1 – Morocco 2: 9% 9 Canada 1 – Morocco 3: 5% 5 Canada 1 – Morocco 4: 2% Canada 1 – Morocco 5+: 1% Canada 2 – Morocco 0: 4% 4 Canada 2 – Morocco 1: 6% 6 Canada 2 – Morocco 2: 5% 5 Canada 2 – Morocco 3: 2% Canada 2 – Morocco 4: 1% Canada 2 – Morocco 5+: 0% Canada 3 – Morocco 0: 1% Canada 3 – Morocco 1: 2% Canada 3 – Morocco 2: 1% Canada 3 – Morocco 3: 1% Canada 3 – Morocco 4: 0% Canada 3 – Morocco 5+: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 0: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 1: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 2: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 3: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 4: 0% Canada 4 – Morocco 5+: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 0: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 1: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 2: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 3: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 4: 0% Canada 5+ – Morocco 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Morocco goals → Canada goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Morocco as the favored outcome with a 49% win probability, while Canada is positioned as the underdog at 22%. The gap of roughly 27 percentage points reflects a substantive difference in expected strength, though Canada retains a meaningful chance to upset at neutral venue conditions.

The draw emerges as a plausible result in the model's view at 30%, sitting between the two decisive outcomes. This spread suggests competitive balance on the margins—neither team dominates the tail of possible scorelines—but Morocco's win probability still comfortably exceeds either alternative, indicating the model leans toward a Morocco victory as the modal outcome.

The model and sportsbook consensus are closely aligned across all three outcomes. Canada win probabilities differ by 3 percentage points; draws by 2 percentage points; Morocco wins by 5 percentage points. Polymarket pricing shows similar agreement, with Morocco win odds within 5 percentage points of both the model and the consensus. This convergence suggests broad agreement on the underlying match structure.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.