World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 4 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Paraguay 0–1 France

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Paraguay
  • Draw
  • France
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 69%, books 81%, Polymarket 83% — Polymarket closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Paraguay 0.63 − France 2.16 (France +1.52)

Paraguay 0 – France 0: 6% 6 Paraguay 0 – France 1: 13% 13 Paraguay 0 – France 2: 14% 14 Paraguay 0 – France 3: 10% 10 Paraguay 0 – France 4: 6% 6 Paraguay 0 – France 5+: 4% 4 Paraguay 1 – France 0: 4% 4 Paraguay 1 – France 1: 9% 9 Paraguay 1 – France 2: 9% 9 Paraguay 1 – France 3: 7% 7 Paraguay 1 – France 4: 4% 4 Paraguay 1 – France 5+: 2% Paraguay 2 – France 0: 1% Paraguay 2 – France 1: 3% Paraguay 2 – France 2: 3% Paraguay 2 – France 3: 2% Paraguay 2 – France 4: 1% Paraguay 2 – France 5+: 1% Paraguay 3 – France 0: 0% Paraguay 3 – France 1: 1% Paraguay 3 – France 2: 1% Paraguay 3 – France 3: 0% Paraguay 3 – France 4: 0% Paraguay 3 – France 5+: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 0: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 1: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 2: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 3: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 4: 0% Paraguay 4 – France 5+: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 0: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 1: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 2: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 3: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 4: 0% Paraguay 5+ – France 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ France goals → Paraguay goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors France at 69%, assigning Paraguay only a 9% chance of victory. The underdog's path to three points is narrow but nonzero; France enters as a clear favorite on the neutral ground.

The 22% draw probability suggests a match unlikely to be decided by a wide margin. France's win probability outweighs the draw by roughly three-to-one, indicating the model expects France to be the stronger side but acknowledges competitive resistance. A Paraguay upset or stalemate cannot be ruled out on the day.

The market consensus skews more heavily toward France, pricing a win at 81% compared to the model's 69%—a gap of roughly 12 percentage points. The sportsbook consensus also compresses the draw to 14%, well below the model's 22%. Polymarket prices align closely with the book consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate which estimate is more accurate; the divergence reflects genuine uncertainty about match conditions and relative team strength.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.