World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 5 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Brazil 1–2 Norway

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Brazil
  • Draw
  • Norway
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 23%, books 21%, Polymarket 19% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Brazil 1.48 − Norway 1.04 (Brazil +0.44)

Brazil 0 – Norway 0: 8% 8 Brazil 0 – Norway 1: 8% 8 Brazil 0 – Norway 2: 4% 4 Brazil 0 – Norway 3: 2% Brazil 0 – Norway 4: 0% Brazil 0 – Norway 5+: 0% Brazil 1 – Norway 0: 12% 12 Brazil 1 – Norway 1: 13% 13 Brazil 1 – Norway 2: 6% 6 Brazil 1 – Norway 3: 2% Brazil 1 – Norway 4: 1% Brazil 1 – Norway 5+: 0% Brazil 2 – Norway 0: 9% 9 Brazil 2 – Norway 1: 9% 9 Brazil 2 – Norway 2: 5% 5 Brazil 2 – Norway 3: 2% Brazil 2 – Norway 4: 0% Brazil 2 – Norway 5+: 0% Brazil 3 – Norway 0: 4% 4 Brazil 3 – Norway 1: 5% 5 Brazil 3 – Norway 2: 2% Brazil 3 – Norway 3: 1% Brazil 3 – Norway 4: 0% Brazil 3 – Norway 5+: 0% Brazil 4 – Norway 0: 2% Brazil 4 – Norway 1: 2% Brazil 4 – Norway 2: 1% Brazil 4 – Norway 3: 0% Brazil 4 – Norway 4: 0% Brazil 4 – Norway 5+: 0% Brazil 5+ – Norway 0: 1% Brazil 5+ – Norway 1: 1% Brazil 5+ – Norway 2: 0% Brazil 5+ – Norway 3: 0% Brazil 5+ – Norway 4: 0% Brazil 5+ – Norway 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Norway goals → Brazil goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Brazil as the modest favorite at 46%, while Norway's win probability stands at 23%. Brazil's advantage is real but constrained; the model assigns neither team a commanding position in a neutral-venue match.

The 31% draw probability suggests competitive balance. A draw is a plausible outcome, and the win-probability spread between Brazil and Norway narrows when accounting for the likelihood of a stalemate. The match is forecast to be reasonably close across all three outcomes, rather than heavily skewed toward either team winning in regulation.

The market consensus diverges noticeably from the model. Sportsbooks place Brazil at 53%, roughly 7 percentage points higher than the model's 46%, and rate Norway at 21% compared to the model's 23%. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with the sportsbooks. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the gap may reflect differing underlying assumptions or information sets, and bettors should note the divergence before committing capital.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.