World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 5 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Mexico 2–3 England

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Mexico
  • Draw
  • England
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 45%, books 39%, Polymarket 40% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Mexico 1.02 − England 1.52 (England +0.50)

Mexico 0 – England 0: 8% 8 Mexico 0 – England 1: 12% 12 Mexico 0 – England 2: 9% 9 Mexico 0 – England 3: 5% 5 Mexico 0 – England 4: 2% Mexico 0 – England 5+: 1% Mexico 1 – England 0: 8% 8 Mexico 1 – England 1: 13% 13 Mexico 1 – England 2: 9% 9 Mexico 1 – England 3: 5% 5 Mexico 1 – England 4: 2% Mexico 1 – England 5+: 1% Mexico 2 – England 0: 4% 4 Mexico 2 – England 1: 6% 6 Mexico 2 – England 2: 5% 5 Mexico 2 – England 3: 2% Mexico 2 – England 4: 1% Mexico 2 – England 5+: 0% Mexico 3 – England 0: 1% Mexico 3 – England 1: 2% Mexico 3 – England 2: 2% Mexico 3 – England 3: 1% Mexico 3 – England 4: 0% Mexico 3 – England 5+: 0% Mexico 4 – England 0: 0% Mexico 4 – England 1: 1% Mexico 4 – England 2: 0% Mexico 4 – England 3: 0% Mexico 4 – England 4: 0% Mexico 4 – England 5+: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 0: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 1: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 2: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 3: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 4: 0% Mexico 5+ – England 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ England goals → Mexico goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours England at 45%, with Mexico trailing at 24% and a draw at 30%. England holds a 21-percentage-point edge in win probability over Mexico, positioning the squad as clear favourite on the statistical forecast.

The spread indicates a moderately competitive match. England's advantage is substantial but not overwhelming; the 30% draw probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the outcome. A stalemate ranks as plausible as either team's outright victory, suggesting the contest will likely remain close through regulation.

The model and market show meaningful divergence. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both price England lower than the model—around 40% versus 45%—while crediting Mexico with roughly 6 percentage points more win probability than the statistical forecast. The dashboard offers no view on which source is more accurate; bettors should note the 5–6 percentage-point gap on England and assess whether that reflects overlooked model strength or justified market caution.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.