World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 6 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Portugal 0–1 Spain

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Portugal
  • Draw
  • Spain
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 55%, books 50%, Polymarket 51% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Portugal 0.85 − Spain 1.76 (Spain +0.91)

Portugal 0 – Spain 0: 8% 8 Portugal 0 – Spain 1: 13% 13 Portugal 0 – Spain 2: 11% 11 Portugal 0 – Spain 3: 7% 7 Portugal 0 – Spain 4: 3% Portugal 0 – Spain 5+: 1% Portugal 1 – Spain 0: 6% 6 Portugal 1 – Spain 1: 11% 11 Portugal 1 – Spain 2: 10% 10 Portugal 1 – Spain 3: 6% 6 Portugal 1 – Spain 4: 2% Portugal 1 – Spain 5+: 1% Portugal 2 – Spain 0: 3% Portugal 2 – Spain 1: 5% 5 Portugal 2 – Spain 2: 4% 4 Portugal 2 – Spain 3: 2% Portugal 2 – Spain 4: 1% Portugal 2 – Spain 5+: 1% Portugal 3 – Spain 0: 1% Portugal 3 – Spain 1: 1% Portugal 3 – Spain 2: 1% Portugal 3 – Spain 3: 1% Portugal 3 – Spain 4: 0% Portugal 3 – Spain 5+: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 0: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 1: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 2: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 3: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 4: 0% Portugal 4 – Spain 5+: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 0: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 1: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 2: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 3: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 4: 0% Portugal 5+ – Spain 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Spain goals → Portugal goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

Spain enters as the model's clear favorite with a 56% chance of victory, while Portugal's win probability stands at 17%, leaving the underdog substantial ground to make up on a neutral pitch.

The 28-percentage-point gap between Spain's win rate and Portugal's reflects an asymmetric matchup in the model's assessment. Draws carry meaningful weight at 28%, suggesting competitive play is plausible, but Spain's advantage in outright win probability is sizable rather than marginal.

The model and sportsbook consensus diverge notably on Spain's win probability—the market assigns 50% versus the model's 56%, a 6-percentage-point spread. Both sources align closely on draw likelihood (27–28%) and largely agree Portugal sits in the 17–23% range. The model leans more bullish on Spain than the consensus does; the dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment better reflects underlying match dynamics.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.