World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 6 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

USA 1–4 Belgium

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • USA
  • Draw
  • Belgium
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 44%, books 34%, Polymarket 34% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: USA 1.04 − Belgium 1.48 (Belgium +0.44)

USA 0 – Belgium 0: 8% 8 USA 0 – Belgium 1: 12% 12 USA 0 – Belgium 2: 9% 9 USA 0 – Belgium 3: 4% 4 USA 0 – Belgium 4: 2% USA 0 – Belgium 5+: 1% USA 1 – Belgium 0: 8% 8 USA 1 – Belgium 1: 13% 13 USA 1 – Belgium 2: 9% 9 USA 1 – Belgium 3: 5% 5 USA 1 – Belgium 4: 2% USA 1 – Belgium 5+: 1% USA 2 – Belgium 0: 4% 4 USA 2 – Belgium 1: 6% 6 USA 2 – Belgium 2: 5% 5 USA 2 – Belgium 3: 2% USA 2 – Belgium 4: 1% USA 2 – Belgium 5+: 0% USA 3 – Belgium 0: 2% USA 3 – Belgium 1: 2% USA 3 – Belgium 2: 2% USA 3 – Belgium 3: 1% USA 3 – Belgium 4: 0% USA 3 – Belgium 5+: 0% USA 4 – Belgium 0: 0% USA 4 – Belgium 1: 1% USA 4 – Belgium 2: 0% USA 4 – Belgium 3: 0% USA 4 – Belgium 4: 0% USA 4 – Belgium 5+: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 0: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 1: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 2: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 3: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 4: 0% USA 5+ – Belgium 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Belgium goals → USA goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Belgium as the favorite with a 44% chance of victory, compared to a 26% probability assigned to a USA win. That 18-percentage-point gap reflects a meaningful but not insurmountable gap in the model's estimated strength between the two sides at this neutral venue.

The draw outcome carries a 31% probability in the model, making it nearly as likely as a Belgium win. The spread across all three outcomes suggests a moderately competitive match rather than a heavily one-sided affair, though the model leans clearly toward the away-from-USA scenarios combined.

The market consensus diverges notably from the model. Sportsbooks place Belgium at 34%, substantially lower than the model's 44%, while shifting USA to 39%, an increase of 13 percentage points. Polymarket pricing aligns closely with the sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not claim to determine which assessment is correct; the disagreement likely reflects different underlying assumptions about relative team strength or match conditions.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.