World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 7 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Argentina 3–2 Egypt

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Argentina
  • Draw
  • Egypt
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 84%, books 71%, Polymarket 72% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Argentina 2.68 − Egypt 0.45 (Argentina +2.23)

Argentina 0 – Egypt 0: 5% 5 Argentina 0 – Egypt 1: 2% Argentina 0 – Egypt 2: 0% Argentina 0 – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 0 – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 0 – Egypt 5+: 0% Argentina 1 – Egypt 0: 12% 12 Argentina 1 – Egypt 1: 5% 5 Argentina 1 – Egypt 2: 1% Argentina 1 – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 1 – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 1 – Egypt 5+: 0% Argentina 2 – Egypt 0: 16% 16 Argentina 2 – Egypt 1: 7% 7 Argentina 2 – Egypt 2: 2% Argentina 2 – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 2 – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 2 – Egypt 5+: 0% Argentina 3 – Egypt 0: 14% 14 Argentina 3 – Egypt 1: 6% 6 Argentina 3 – Egypt 2: 1% Argentina 3 – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 3 – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 3 – Egypt 5+: 0% Argentina 4 – Egypt 0: 9% 9 Argentina 4 – Egypt 1: 4% 4 Argentina 4 – Egypt 2: 1% Argentina 4 – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 4 – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 4 – Egypt 5+: 0% Argentina 5+ – Egypt 0: 9% 9 Argentina 5+ – Egypt 1: 4% 4 Argentina 5+ – Egypt 2: 1% Argentina 5+ – Egypt 3: 0% Argentina 5+ – Egypt 4: 0% Argentina 5+ – Egypt 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Egypt goals → Argentina goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model rates Argentina as a heavy favorite at 84% to win, leaving Egypt just under 1% chance of victory. The underdog's path runs almost entirely through a draw, which the model assigns 16% probability—a meaningful but secondary outcome for a side facing such a sharp deficit in the forecast.

The win-loss gap is substantial, suggesting Argentina enters as decisively the stronger side by the model's measure. Yet a draw carries genuine plausibility at 16%, indicating the match is not modeled as a coronation; Egypt has room to frustrate and compete for a point, even if a win sits far outside the model's base case.

Model and market diverge notably on Argentina's win probability—the model favors Argentina by roughly 12 percentage points more than sportsbooks do. Polymarket prices track the consensus closely. The dashboard does not adjudicate which assessment is correct; the discrepancy may reflect different underlying assumptions about strength or uncertainty. Sportsbooks assign Egypt considerably higher win equity (9%) than the model does (1%), a gap worth noting for bettors evaluating value.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.