World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Round of 16 · 7 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Switzerland 0–0 Colombia

Switzerland won 4-3 on penalties

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Switzerland
  • Draw
  • Colombia
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 30%, books 31%, Polymarket 31% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Switzerland 0.96 − Colombia 1.58 (Colombia +0.62)

Switzerland 0 – Colombia 0: 8% 8 Switzerland 0 – Colombia 1: 12% 12 Switzerland 0 – Colombia 2: 10% 10 Switzerland 0 – Colombia 3: 5% 5 Switzerland 0 – Colombia 4: 2% Switzerland 0 – Colombia 5+: 1% Switzerland 1 – Colombia 0: 7% 7 Switzerland 1 – Colombia 1: 12% 12 Switzerland 1 – Colombia 2: 9% 9 Switzerland 1 – Colombia 3: 5% 5 Switzerland 1 – Colombia 4: 2% Switzerland 1 – Colombia 5+: 1% Switzerland 2 – Colombia 0: 4% 4 Switzerland 2 – Colombia 1: 6% 6 Switzerland 2 – Colombia 2: 5% 5 Switzerland 2 – Colombia 3: 2% Switzerland 2 – Colombia 4: 1% Switzerland 2 – Colombia 5+: 0% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 0: 1% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 1: 2% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 2: 1% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 3: 1% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 4: 0% Switzerland 3 – Colombia 5+: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 0: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 1: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 2: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 3: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 4: 0% Switzerland 4 – Colombia 5+: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 0: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 1: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 2: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 3: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 4: 0% Switzerland 5+ – Colombia 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Colombia goals → Switzerland goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

Colombia enters as the model's clear favorite at 48%, with Switzerland given a 22% chance of victory. The remaining probability—30%—lands on a draw, making a stalemate more likely than a Swiss win on the day.

The gap between Colombia's modal outcome and Switzerland's reflects moderate separation. A draw sits between the two win probabilities, indicating the match is competitive but tilted. Colombia's 26-point advantage over Switzerland in win probability suggests the model expects Colombia to control play, yet draws occur frequently enough in knockout-stage football that one remains a plausible result.

The model and sportsbook consensus align closely on the decisive result: both place Colombia's win probability in the low-to-mid 40s, with Switzerland in the mid-20s. The draw predictions cluster around 30–31%. Polymarket prices track the consensus equally well. No meaningful divergence signals disagreement across sources on this fixture's likely outcome.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.