World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Quarter-finals · 10 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Spain 2–1 Belgium

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Spain
  • Draw
  • Belgium
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 75%, books 59%, Polymarket 59% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Spain 2.29 − Belgium 0.58 (Spain +1.71)

Spain 0 – Belgium 0: 6% 6 Spain 0 – Belgium 1: 3% 3 Spain 0 – Belgium 2: 1% Spain 0 – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 0 – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 0 – Belgium 5+: 0% Spain 1 – Belgium 0: 13% 13 Spain 1 – Belgium 1: 8% 8 Spain 1 – Belgium 2: 2% Spain 1 – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 1 – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 1 – Belgium 5+: 0% Spain 2 – Belgium 0: 15% 15 Spain 2 – Belgium 1: 9% 9 Spain 2 – Belgium 2: 2% Spain 2 – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 2 – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 2 – Belgium 5+: 0% Spain 3 – Belgium 0: 11% 11 Spain 3 – Belgium 1: 7% 7 Spain 3 – Belgium 2: 2% Spain 3 – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 3 – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 3 – Belgium 5+: 0% Spain 4 – Belgium 0: 7% 7 Spain 4 – Belgium 1: 4% 4 Spain 4 – Belgium 2: 1% Spain 4 – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 4 – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 4 – Belgium 5+: 0% Spain 5+ – Belgium 0: 5% 5 Spain 5+ – Belgium 1: 3% Spain 5+ – Belgium 2: 1% Spain 5+ – Belgium 3: 0% Spain 5+ – Belgium 4: 0% Spain 5+ – Belgium 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Belgium goals → Spain goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Spain decisively, assigning them a 75% win probability. Belgium's chance stands at just 4%, leaving a substantial gap between the two outcomes.

The model sees this as a heavily tilted affair. Spain's 75% win rate and 20% draw probability together account for 95% of outcomes, leaving little room for a Belgium upset. The draw is plausible but not the likeliest result; the match is expected to tilt toward a Spanish victory rather than remain genuinely competitive.

The model and market diverge meaningfully. Sportsbooks and Polymarket both price Spain closer to 59%, roughly 16 percentage points lower than the model's 75%. Both market sources converge around a 17% Belgium win probability—roughly four times the model's 4% assessment. This gap reflects a material disagreement about Spain's superiority. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.