World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Quarter-finals · 11 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Argentina 3–1 Switzerland

After extra time (1–1 at 90')

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Argentina
  • Draw
  • Switzerland
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 23%, books 27%, Polymarket 27% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Argentina 2.08 − Switzerland 0.67 (Argentina +1.41)

Argentina 0 – Switzerland 0: 7% 7 Argentina 0 – Switzerland 1: 4% 4 Argentina 0 – Switzerland 2: 1% Argentina 0 – Switzerland 3: 0% Argentina 0 – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 0 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Argentina 1 – Switzerland 0: 13% 13 Argentina 1 – Switzerland 1: 9% 9 Argentina 1 – Switzerland 2: 3% Argentina 1 – Switzerland 3: 1% Argentina 1 – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 1 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Argentina 2 – Switzerland 0: 14% 14 Argentina 2 – Switzerland 1: 9% 9 Argentina 2 – Switzerland 2: 3% 3 Argentina 2 – Switzerland 3: 1% Argentina 2 – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 2 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Argentina 3 – Switzerland 0: 10% 10 Argentina 3 – Switzerland 1: 6% 6 Argentina 3 – Switzerland 2: 2% Argentina 3 – Switzerland 3: 0% Argentina 3 – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 3 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Argentina 4 – Switzerland 0: 5% 5 Argentina 4 – Switzerland 1: 3% 3 Argentina 4 – Switzerland 2: 1% Argentina 4 – Switzerland 3: 0% Argentina 4 – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 4 – Switzerland 5+: 0% Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 0: 3% 3 Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 1: 2% Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 2: 1% Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 3: 0% Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 4: 0% Argentina 5+ – Switzerland 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Switzerland goals → Argentina goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours Argentina at 69%, leaving Switzerland with only a 7% chance of victory. That gap reflects a substantial difference in expected quality between the two sides, though the model's assessment is notably more confident than the sportsbook consensus, which credits Switzerland with a 17% win probability.

The draw carries meaningful probability in the model's spread at 23%, suggesting the match could remain undecided through regular time. The 46-percentage-point gap between Argentina's win probability and Switzerland's indicates a clear hierarchy, yet the plausible draw outcome means the fixture is not a foregone conclusion and carries legitimate competitive stakes.

The model and sportsbook diverge meaningfully. The model assigns Argentina 13 percentage points more win probability than the market consensus, while the market simultaneously rates Switzerland 9 points higher. Polymarket prices align closely with sportsbook consensus. The dashboard does not claim to know which assessment is correct; the gap suggests material disagreement about the relative strength of these sides.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.