World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Quarter-finals · 11 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Norway 1–2 England

After extra time (1–1 at 90')

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Norway
  • Draw
  • England
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 30%, books 26%, Polymarket 26% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Norway 0.96 − England 1.60 (England +0.64)

Norway 0 – England 0: 8% 8 Norway 0 – England 1: 12% 12 Norway 0 – England 2: 10% 10 Norway 0 – England 3: 5% 5 Norway 0 – England 4: 2% Norway 0 – England 5+: 1% Norway 1 – England 0: 7% 7 Norway 1 – England 1: 12% 12 Norway 1 – England 2: 9% 9 Norway 1 – England 3: 5% 5 Norway 1 – England 4: 2% Norway 1 – England 5+: 1% Norway 2 – England 0: 4% 4 Norway 2 – England 1: 6% 6 Norway 2 – England 2: 5% 5 Norway 2 – England 3: 2% Norway 2 – England 4: 1% Norway 2 – England 5+: 0% Norway 3 – England 0: 1% Norway 3 – England 1: 2% Norway 3 – England 2: 1% Norway 3 – England 3: 1% Norway 3 – England 4: 0% Norway 3 – England 5+: 0% Norway 4 – England 0: 0% Norway 4 – England 1: 0% Norway 4 – England 2: 0% Norway 4 – England 3: 0% Norway 4 – England 4: 0% Norway 4 – England 5+: 0% Norway 5+ – England 0: 0% Norway 5+ – England 1: 0% Norway 5+ – England 2: 0% Norway 5+ – England 3: 0% Norway 5+ – England 4: 0% Norway 5+ – England 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ England goals → Norway goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favours England at 49%, while Norway's win probability stands at 22%. England enters as the clear favourite, but Norway retains a meaningful chance to upset on a neutral ground.

The draw emerges as a plausible outcome at 30%, suggesting the match could be closer than the headline probabilities indicate. The 27-percentage-point gap between England's win probability and Norway's indicates meaningful separation, though the substantial draw likelihood points to genuine competitive balance rather than a runaway favourite scenario.

Model and sportsbook consensus align closely across all three outcomes, with gaps of 1–2 percentage points. Polymarket pricing is similarly tight to both. This convergence suggests broad agreement on the match's fundamental difficulty for the underdog and the realistic chance of a stalemate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.