World Cup 2026 Predictor

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Semi-finals · 14 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

France 0–2 Spain

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • France
  • Draw
  • Spain
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 48%, books 31%, Polymarket 30% — model closest.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: France 0.97 − Spain 1.58 (Spain +0.60)

France 0 – Spain 0: 8% 8 France 0 – Spain 1: 12% 12 France 0 – Spain 2: 10% 10 France 0 – Spain 3: 5% 5 France 0 – Spain 4: 2% France 0 – Spain 5+: 1% France 1 – Spain 0: 7% 7 France 1 – Spain 1: 12% 12 France 1 – Spain 2: 9% 9 France 1 – Spain 3: 5% 5 France 1 – Spain 4: 2% France 1 – Spain 5+: 1% France 2 – Spain 0: 4% 4 France 2 – Spain 1: 6% 6 France 2 – Spain 2: 5% 5 France 2 – Spain 3: 2% France 2 – Spain 4: 1% France 2 – Spain 5+: 0% France 3 – Spain 0: 1% France 3 – Spain 1: 2% France 3 – Spain 2: 1% France 3 – Spain 3: 1% France 3 – Spain 4: 0% France 3 – Spain 5+: 0% France 4 – Spain 0: 0% France 4 – Spain 1: 0% France 4 – Spain 2: 0% France 4 – Spain 3: 0% France 4 – Spain 4: 0% France 4 – Spain 5+: 0% France 5+ – Spain 0: 0% France 5+ – Spain 1: 0% France 5+ – Spain 2: 0% France 5+ – Spain 3: 0% France 5+ – Spain 4: 0% France 5+ – Spain 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Spain goals → France goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Spain at 48%, with France positioned as a clear underdog at 22%. The remaining probability mass—nearly 30%—clusters in a draw outcome, suggesting the match could settle either way beyond a straightforward Spain victory.

The 26-percentage-point gap between the favorite and underdog indicates a competitive but asymmetric contest. A draw sits between the two outright results in likelihood, which means the match shape is moderately dispersed across all three outcomes rather than heavily concentrated. Spain enters as the likeliest single result, but the combined probability of a France win or draw (52%) remains substantial.

No sportsbook consensus is currently available. The Polymarket prices—assigning 100% to Spain and 0% to both France and a draw—are extreme outliers and do not represent a functional market for analytical comparison. The dashboard makes no claim about which source reflects true match probability; such extreme pricing typically indicates illiquidity or data anomalies rather than informed consensus.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.