World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Third-place play-off · 18 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

France 4–6 England

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • France
  • Draw
  • England
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 27%, books 25%, Polymarket 25% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: France 1.37 − England 1.14 (France +0.23)

France 0 – England 0: 8% 8 France 0 – England 1: 9% 9 France 0 – England 2: 5% 5 France 0 – England 3: 2% France 0 – England 4: 1% France 0 – England 5+: 0% France 1 – England 0: 11% 11 France 1 – England 1: 13% 13 France 1 – England 2: 7% 7 France 1 – England 3: 3% France 1 – England 4: 1% France 1 – England 5+: 0% France 2 – England 0: 8% 8 France 2 – England 1: 9% 9 France 2 – England 2: 5% 5 France 2 – England 3: 2% France 2 – England 4: 1% France 2 – England 5+: 0% France 3 – England 0: 3% 3 France 3 – England 1: 4% 4 France 3 – England 2: 2% France 3 – England 3: 1% France 3 – England 4: 0% France 3 – England 5+: 0% France 4 – England 0: 1% France 4 – England 1: 1% France 4 – England 2: 1% France 4 – England 3: 0% France 4 – England 4: 0% France 4 – England 5+: 0% France 5+ – England 0: 0% France 5+ – England 1: 0% France 5+ – England 2: 0% France 5+ – England 3: 0% France 5+ – England 4: 0% France 5+ – England 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ England goals → France goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors France at 41%, with England at 28% to win. A draw carries 31% probability in the statistical forecast, making it a material outcome that sits between the two outright win chances. France holds a modest edge, but the match distributes its uncertainty across all three results fairly broadly.

The spread indicates a competitive encounter. France's 13-point advantage over England in win probability is meaningful but hardly decisive; the model assigns roughly equal combined odds to an England victory or stalemate as it does to a French win. A draw emerges as the second-most-likely single outcome, suggesting the teams may be closer in strength or that the neutral venue and inherent match variance create genuine balance in how the contest could unfold.

The market consensus diverges noticeably from the model. Sportsbooks assign France 51% to win—10 percentage points higher than the model—while compressing the draw to 24% and England to 25%. Polymarket prices align closely with the book consensus. The dashboard does not adjudicate between these sources; the disagreement likely reflects different methodologies, additional information, or market-specific factors the model does not incorporate.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.