World Cup 2026 Predictor

← Tournament forecast

Final · 19 July 2026 · neutral venue · Full time

Spain 1–0 Argentina

After extra time (0–0 at 90')

Pre-match forecast — frozen before kickoff

  • Spain
  • Draw
  • Argentina
Modelbias-corrected
Sportsbookvig stripped
Polymarket

Model gave this result 31%, books 32%, Polymarket 31% — all sources missed.

Most likely scorelines

Model expected goals: Spain 1.36 − Argentina 1.15 (Spain +0.21)

Spain 0 – Argentina 0: 9% 9 Spain 0 – Argentina 1: 9% 9 Spain 0 – Argentina 2: 5% 5 Spain 0 – Argentina 3: 2% Spain 0 – Argentina 4: 1% Spain 0 – Argentina 5+: 0% Spain 1 – Argentina 0: 11% 11 Spain 1 – Argentina 1: 13% 13 Spain 1 – Argentina 2: 7% 7 Spain 1 – Argentina 3: 3% Spain 1 – Argentina 4: 1% Spain 1 – Argentina 5+: 0% Spain 2 – Argentina 0: 8% 8 Spain 2 – Argentina 1: 9% 9 Spain 2 – Argentina 2: 5% 5 Spain 2 – Argentina 3: 2% Spain 2 – Argentina 4: 1% Spain 2 – Argentina 5+: 0% Spain 3 – Argentina 0: 3% 3 Spain 3 – Argentina 1: 4% 4 Spain 3 – Argentina 2: 2% Spain 3 – Argentina 3: 1% Spain 3 – Argentina 4: 0% Spain 3 – Argentina 5+: 0% Spain 4 – Argentina 0: 1% Spain 4 – Argentina 1: 1% Spain 4 – Argentina 2: 1% Spain 4 – Argentina 3: 0% Spain 4 – Argentina 4: 0% Spain 4 – Argentina 5+: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 0: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 1: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 2: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 3: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 4: 0% Spain 5+ – Argentina 5+: 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Argentina goals → Spain goals ↓
Home goals down the rows, away goals across the columns; the gold diagonal is draws. “5+” folds in all higher scores.

Scoreline probabilities come from the uncorrected model — their implied result split won't exactly match the corrected bars above.

Pre-match preview

The model favors Spain at 41% to win, with Argentina trailing at 28%. The 13-percentage-point gap reflects a meaningful but not dominant edge for the favorite on a neutral ground. Spain's win probability exceeds Argentina's by roughly half as much again.

The draw emerges as a plausible outcome at 31%, suggesting the teams are close enough in capability that a stalemate is nearly as likely as an Argentina victory. The spread across outcomes is moderately compressed—no single result dominates decisively—indicating a competitive match where multiple scenarios carry genuine probability.

Model and market are tightly aligned. Sportsbook consensus sits at 42% Spain, 32% draw, and 27% Argentina; Polymarket prices at 42%, 31%, and 26% respectively. All three sources cluster within 2 percentage points of each other across each outcome, suggesting broad agreement on the relative strengths in play.

Written by Claude before the match from the figures above — it has no squad, injury, or form data. See the methodology.